One year look ahead economic forecast for the US
Paper , Order, or Assignment Requirements
Here is a rough outline for writing your forecast paper:
Introduction – A story, a statistic, a quote, or other attention catcher to set the framework for your forecast.
Description of the indicators that you will be using to forecast the economic future. These indicators could be some of the indicators discussed at the web site investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/leading-economic-indicators.asp
Description of the present state of the economy focusing on all the measures of the economy that are important such as GDP, M2, inflation rates, unemployment rates, growth rates, exchange rates, trade balances, etc.
Your forecast for the future using the select indicators that you have selected to make your forecast.
Possible wild card events that could alter the outcome of your forecast.
Conclusion – Summing up the material covered and bringing attention to the likely future direction of the economy.
Here are some more suggestions that will help you to write your paper.
- You could start out by using the basic aggregate demand/aggregate supply model as a reference point? Where are we presently in terms of unemployment, price levels, output, etc. How does this differ from the past such as during 2006 and 2008? What are interest rates now and what have they been and what effect have interest rates had on the economy? What is the composition of consumption, investment, government spending, exports, and imports? How have these categories changed since 2006 and 2008 for example?
- Analyze the past data to see if you see any particular trends in all the categories under investigation? How would these trends impact the aggregate demand and aggregate supply models if they continued? Are exports increasing? Are imports increasing? How does this impact output? What are the percentages of these changes and how relevant are they for our over all economy?
- Create three scenarios and look at how these scenarios may impact the course of the economy. What are the probabilities of these scenarios? So if the Fed is not going to raise interest rates has a 10 percent chance of happening, and they will raise interest rates by a .25 point has 40 percent chance, and they might raise interest rates by a .50 point has a 50 percent probability you multiply the different interest rates by their probability to come up with what the interest rate is likely to be. So .25 times .1 = .025 and .50 times .4 = .2 and .75 times .6 = .45 interest rates in the future from the three scenarios would be .675 on average. How does a higher interest rate impact aggregate demand? How does it impact the value of the currency? How does the value of the currency impact the balance of exports and imports?
- Do of the theories such as Austrian, Classical, Keynesian, Monetarist, etc. impact your interpretation of the data and the effectiveness of different policy options and scenarios?